San Francisco 2020? Already?!
COPENHAGEN — Gavin Newsom, mayor of San Francisco, Democratic candidate for California governor, apparently perusing the political tea leaves, filed this Sunday to his Twitter feed:
“Hats off to the Pres for his effort on Chicago Olympic bid-a loss for the city and US- is it too early to say San Francisco 2020?!”
Mr. Mayor, though you posed a rhetorical question, this space is here for you. Because though you really didn’t ask for one, here’s your answer:
Yes, it is.
It is way too early.
It is almost absurd, as a matter of fact, just two days after Chicago was thrown out of the 2016 contest in the first round despite an in-person appeal here by President Obama, for the United States to consider a bid for the Summer Games of 2020.
It’s doubly absurd for any American city to consider 2020, or a Winter Games bid for 2018 or 2022, unless and until the U.S. Olympic Committee and the IOC make peace over the revenue-sharing issues that were at the root of Chicago’s embarrassing showing, particularly since those disputes had also contributed significantly to New York’s fourth-place showing in 2005 for the 2012 Summer Games, won by London.
For emphasis: There should be no American bids until the situation heads toward resolution.
Nonetheless, let’s just say, hypothetically speaking (and what a hypothetical, because the revenue-related fractiousness has been going on now for years), that the USOC and IOC were to resolve their differences.
It’s not now clear that there’s an American city that can win. Chicago and New York got dumped. What, Boise has magic that they don’t?
The very first question in a bid application file is, why does your city want to bid for the Olympic Games?
Elemental, but as one consultant who has worked on a number of recent bids put it, “Most bidders find that question extremely hard to answer. Most say, ‘It says, Why do you want the Games? Because we want the Games!’ ”
It’s not enough just to be pretty. The Bay Area is unquestionably beautiful. But it lacks the sort of infrastructure that an Olympics requires, which is why San Francisco didn’t make the USOC’s final cut in a search two years ago for the one American city to be put forward for the 2016 Games. (Stadium? Stadium? Anyone in Northern California have a suitable stadium? Didn’t think so. Any easy money in cash-strapped California to build such a stadium? Didn’t think so.)
Los Angeles always stands ready. It has pretty much everything in place, built and open for business now, that you’d need for a Games. Los Angeles made the two-city finals in the USOC’s 2007 search for 2016, losing out to Chicago. The reason: What would be the Los Angeles story? It already has staged the Games twice, in 1932 and 1984 — why a third time?
Philadelphia, Houston, Seattle, Tampa, Cincinnati, Dallas, Washington, Birmingham, Tulsa — all have exhibited signs in the past few years of Olympic fever. If Atlanta can do it, the reasoning always goes, why not here?
Because, it’s increasingly clear in hindsight, Atlanta was a one-off, won in 1990 when the Olympic movement was aglow in the light of the 1984 Los Angeles experience and the United States looked a lot different to many within the Olympic movement than it does now. And all the issues that dogged those 1996 Atlanta Games, security and transit and the carnival-like scene — the IOC remembers all of that.
Unsolicited advice to mayors, city councils and Billy Payne wannabes in such locales aiming to use the Olympics for a stamp of world-class approval: Take two aspirin and rest a spell until the vapors pass.
Denver and Reno have shown interest not only in 2018 but also 2022.For emphasis, again: 2018 is a non-starter.
Beyond which, and permit me to follow Mayor Newsom’s cue with a rhetorical question: Is the United States’ return to Olympic action really going to come via the smaller, financially less intriguing Winter Games? The most recent Games in the United States took place in Salt Lake City, in 2002.
That’s a decision that has to be figured out by the USOC, because it is the entity that formally files a bid with the IOC. The USOC is not in any position to figure that out, however, and looks not to be in such position for a long time to come.
The Denver people in particular have been taking all the right steps, and key international figures have started to notice — Denver playing host to the IOC and the international sports community in March while lining up corporate and government support.
Then again, Denver is the only city in Olympic history to give the Games back to the IOC, in the early 1970s.
The IOC still remembers.
Rome and Venice, meanwhile, have already announced an intent to bid for 2020.
A host of other international possibilities abound. Remember that half the fun in these sorts of lists is that you don’t know by deadline filing time what might pop up (example: the unsuccessful bid for 2016 by Baku, Azerbaijan).
The only thing that’s certain is that an increasing number of cities from places that haven’t yet staged the Games are sure to seriously consider bidding. That’s the lesson of Rio’s 2016 win — just because it hasn’t happened yet in whichever part of the world doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
Among such possibilities:
– Doha, Qatar. Successfully staged the 2006 Asian Games. Ranked ahead of Rio in the IOC’s initial 2008 assessment for 2016 but dinged because its proposal would have staged the Games in too-late October. Is that fix-able?
– Dubai. The IOC’s former director of communications, Giselle Davies, it was announced earlier this year, would become the chief executive of a new company designed to look into the feasibility of staging a 2020 Games in Dubai.
– Durban, South Africa. The IOC’s 2011 all-delegates assembly is going to be there. The 2010 World Cup is going to South Africa. If the World Cup comes off without major incident, if the IOC session is a success, South Africa might be a real possibility.
– Cape Town, South Africa. Tried for 2004, came in third behind Rome and Athens.
There are a bunch of other cities that have also signaled interest — everywhere from Rabat, Morocco, to Baku to Busan, South Korea.
Take it from Gavin Newsom: It’s never too early to dream.
But, reality check: It’s too early.
October 4th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
Why would the US chances be damaged by a failed Chicago bid this time and a failed New York bid for 2012? Wouldn’t it then compute that Europe and the rest of Asia should not be hopeful either consider each of those continents had a losing bid this time?
The only American cities that could handle a Summer Olympiad well are Los Angeles and San Francisco. As noted in the article, everything in LA is in place, but that city has hosted the Games twice, and a third cycle does seem like overkill even to partisan Americans.
San Francisco would be a great candidate. Between the local professional athletics teams, Stanford University and UC Berkeley all of the major facilities are in place save for an Olympic stadium. And this disregards other facilities in San Jose, approximately 40 miles south. A stadium being the lone missing part is not an excessive barrier. The City has hotels which are major convention capable, and the BART public transport system is first rate and covers both of the two major airports.
Chicago is a logistical mess already, and does not have a lot of land easily developed in the City. It also has horrible public transport - try leaving the city at 4pm for a 6:30 pm flight. Not possible. Chicago also has a horrible climate in Summer, as does Doha, Dubai, and parts of South Africa.
For the 2020 bid the looking backwards venues will be Rio, London, Beijing, Athens and Sydney. The North Americans are ripe to procure the 2020 Games and why not the City by the Bay?